"The Mayor of London takes an approach called 'predict and provide' when making plans for [the future]. This dead-end approach assumes that the past is a good predictor of the future, and that politicians have little power to change anything. So he 'provides' things like land supply on that basis. When it comes to industry he predicts terminal decline, and so provides less and less land.
"In his Infrastructure Plan, he sets projections of employment that show manufacturing jobs falling to just 15,500 by 20501. On that trend, manufacturing will disappear completely from London by 20622. Other sectors that provide skilled manual jobs are also projected to decline – jobs providing energy and water, or transporting, processing, storing and distributing food are all assumed to be on the gradual slide to oblivion.
"But this is an absurd prediction. ... This predicted decline, if it came true, would be hugely damaging for the 'foundational economy' that sustains the infrastructure of everyday life."
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